nution of them afterwards. From thefe appear ances, we fhould of course be directed, not to include the whole of a great mortality in any very short term of years. But there would be nothing of this kind to guide us in the registers of births; and after a country had lost an eighth part of its population by a plague, an average of the five or six subsequent years might show an increase in the number of births, and our calculations would give the population the highest at the very time that it was the loweft. This appears very strikingly in many of Suffmilch's tables, and most particularly in a table for Pruffia and Lithuania, which I fhall infert in a following chapter; where, in the year subsequent to the loss of one third of the population, the births were confiderably increased, and in an average of five years but very little diminished; and this at a time when, of course, the country could have made but a very small progress towards recovering its former population. We do not know indeed of any extraordinary mortality which has occurred in England fince 1700; and there are reafons for fuppofing, that the proportions of the births and deaths to the population during the last century have not experienced fuch great variations as in many coun tries on the continent; at the fame time it is certain, that the fickly feasons which are known to have occurred would, in proportion to the degree of their fatality, produce similar effects ; and the change which has been obferved in the mortality of late years fhould difpofe us to believe, that fimilar changes might formerly have taken place refpecting the births, and should inftruct us to be extremely cautious in applying the proportions, which are obferved to be true at present, to paft or future periods. VOL. I. I I СНАР. CHAP. VIII. Of the Checks to Population in Scotland and Ireland. AN examination, in detail, of the statistical account of Scotland would furnish numerous illustrations of the principle of population; but I have already extended this part of the work fo much, that I am fearful of tiring the patience of my readers; and fhall therefore confine my remarks in the prefent inftance to a few circumftances, which have happened to strike me. On account of the acknowleged omiffions in the registers of births, deaths, and marriages, in most of the parishes of Scotland, few just inferences can be drawn from them. Many give extraordinary refults. In the parish of Croffmichael* in Kircudbright, the mortality appears to be only 1 in 98, and the yearly marriages 1 in 192. Thefe proportions would imply the most unheard of healthinefs, and the most extraordinary operation of the preventive check ; * Statistical Account of Scotland, vol. i, p. 167. but but there can be but little doubt, that they are principally occafioned by omiffions in the registry of burials, and the celebration of a part of the marriages in other parishes. In general, however, it appears from registers that are fuppofed to be accurate, that in the country parishes the mortality is fmall; and that the proportions of 1 in 45, 1 in 50, and 1 in 55, are not uncommon. According to a table of the probabilities of life, calculated from the bills of mortality in the parish of Kettle by Mr. Wilkie, the expectation of an infant's life is 46'6, which is very high, and the proportion which dies in the first year is only. Mr. Wilkie further adds, that from 36 parish accounts, published in the first volume, the expectation of an infant's life appears to be 40°3. But in a table which he has produced in the laft volume, calculated for the whole of Scotland from Dr. Webster's furvey, the expectation at birth appears to be only 31 years. This, however, he thinks, must be too low, as it exceeds but little the calculations for the town of Edinburgh. The Scotch registers appeared to be in genes Statistical Account of Scotland, vol. ii, p. 407. ral fo incomplete, that the returns of 99 parishes only are published in the Population Abstract; and, if any judgment can be formed from thefe, they show a very extraordinary degree of healthiness, and a very small proportion of births. The fum of the population of these parishes in 1801 was 217,873; the average of burials for 5 years ending in 1800, was about 3815; and of births 4928: from which it would appear, that the mortality in these parishes was only I in 56, and the proportion of births 1 in 44. But these proportions are fo extraordinary, that it is difficult to conceive that they approach near the truth. Combining them with the calculations of Mr. Wilkie, it will not appear probable, that the proportion of deaths and births in Scotland fhould be smaller than what has been allowed for England and Wales; namely, 1 in 40 for the deaths, and 1 in 30 for the births, and it feems to be generally agreed, that the proportion of births to deaths is 4 to 3.o With refpect to the marriages, it will be still more difficult to form a conjecture. They are registered fo irregularly, that no returns of them Population Abstract, Parish Registers, p. 459. bId. p. 458. Statistical Account of Scotland, vol. xxi, p. 383. arc |