Predicting the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: The Intelligence Community's Record

according accounts activity additional advisors Afghan Army airborne division Alert already Amin Amin's Anwar appeared assessments assistance Bagram base battalion began beginning believed border Brzezinski carried Central combat commitment Communist Community continued Cordovez and Harrison coup Daoud December decision declassified Defense deployed deployment described descriptions discussions divisions documents efforts Embassy evidence fact factions forces former Ghaus given ground force Herat increased indicated insurgency intelligence analysts Invasion of Afghanistan involvement Iran Kabul Karmal later leaders major March meeting Memorandum military intervention Minister Moscow motorized rifle move National Security noted October offer officials operations Pakistan palace Parcham participation party pointed Politburo political position preparations probably regime reported request says seen September 1979 situation sources Soviet Invasion Soviet military Soviet Union Taraki troops units USSR Washington week York