expands into a large industrial centre, his gain is much greater. All his produce will be worth more; some things which he used to throw away will fetch a good price. He will find new openings in dairy farming and market gardening; and with a larger range of produce he will make use of rotations that keep his land always active without denuding it of any one of the elements that are necessary for its fertility.

Of the way in which organization promotes production, particularly in manufactures, we shall have to speak here' after. But we have already seen enough to be sure that even as regards agriculture the Law of Diminishing Return does not apply to the total capital and labour spent in a district as sharply as to that on a single farm. Even when cultivation has reached a stage after which each successive dose applied to a field would get a less return than the preceding dose, it may be possible for an increase in the population to cause a more than proportional increase in the means of subsistence. It is true that the evil day is only deferred: but it is deferred. The growth of population, if not checked by other causes, must ultimately be checked by the difficulty of obtaining raw produce; but in spite of the Law of Diminishing Return, the pressure of population on the means of subsistence may be restrained for a long time to come by the opening up of new fields of supply, by the cheapening of railway and steamship communication, and by the growth of organization and knowledge.

In the following chapters we shall have much to say about the evil effects of local congestions of population in making it difficult to get fresh air and light, and in some cases fresh water. Again, natives of New England who have gone to the fertile plains of the West, would often be willing to barter part of their heavy crops for the pure water which the barren granite soil of their old homes supplied; and even in England there are many places, particularly at the sea-side, which are

kept poor by the want of drinking water. Again, the natural beauties of a place of fashionable resort have a direct money value which cannot be overlooked; but it requires some effort to realize the true value to men, women and children of being able to stroll amid beautiful and various scenery.

$7. As has already been said the land in economic phrase includes rivers and the sea. In river-fisheries, the extra returns to additional doses of capital and labour show a rapid diminution. As to the sea, opinions differ. Its volume is vast, and fish are very prolific; and it may be true, as some think, that a practically unlimited supply can be drawn from the sea without appreciably affecting the numbers that remain there.

and mines.

The produce of mines again, among which may be reckoned quarries and brickfields, is said to The return conform to the Law of Diminishing Return; from fisheries but this statement is misleading. It is true that we find continually increasing difficulty in obtaining a further supply of minerals, except in so far as we obtain increased power over Nature's stores through improvements in the arts of mining, and through better knowledge of the contents of the earth's crust; and there is no doubt that, other things being equal, the continued application of capital and labour to mines will result in a diminishing rate of yield. But this yield is not a net yield, like the Return of which we speak in the Law of Diminishing Return. That Return is part of a constantly recurring income, while the produce of mines is merely a giving up of their stored-up treasures. The produce of the field is something other than the soil; for the field, properly cultivated, retains its fertility, but the produce of the mine is part of the mine itself.

To put the same thing in another way, the supply of agricultural produce and of fish is a perennial stream; mines are as it were Nature's reservoir. The more nearly a reservoir is exhausted, the greater is the labour of pumping from it;

but if one man could pump it out in ten days, ten men could pump it out in one day: and when once empty, it would yield no more. So the mines that are being opened this year might just as easily have been opened many years ago: if the plans had been properly laid in advance, and the requisite specialized capital and skill got ready for the work, ten years' supply of coal might have been raised in one year without any increased difficulty; and when a vein had once given up its treasure, it could produce no more. This difference is illustrated by the fact that the rent of a mine is calculated on a different principle from that of a farm. The farmer contracts to give back the land as rich as he found it: a mining company cannot do this; and while the farmer's rent is reckoned by the year, mining rent consists chiefly of "royalties" which are levied in proportion to the stores that are taken out of Nature's storehouse.

The return

On the other hand, services which land renders to man in giving him space and light and air in which to from building live and work, do conform strictly to the Law of ground. Diminishing Return. It is advantageous to apply a constantly increasing capital to land that has any special advantages of situation, natural or acquired. Buildings tower up towards the sky; natural light and ventilation are supplemented by artificial means, and the steam lift reduces the disadvantages of the highest floors; and for this expenditure there is a Return of extra convenience, but it is a Diminishing Return. However great the ground rent may be, a limit is at last reached after which it is better to pay more ground rent for a larger area than to go on piling up storey on storey any further; just as the farmer finds that at last a stage is reached at which more intensive cultivation will not pay its expenses, and it is better to pay more rent for extra land, than to face the diminution in the Return which he would get by applying more capital and labour to his old land.

:

CHAPTER IV.

THE SUPPLY OF LABOUR. THE GROWTH OF NUMBERS.

§ 1. IN the animal and vegetable world the growth of numbers is governed simply by the tendency of individuals to propagate their species on the one hand, and on the other hand by the struggle for life which thins out vast numbers of the young before they arrive at maturity. In the human race alone the conflict of these two opposing forces is complicated by the influences of forethought and self-control, of prudence and a sense of duty.

The study of the growth of population is often spoken of as though it were a modern one; but in a more or less vague form it has occupied the attention of thoughtful men in all ages of the world. We may however confine ourselves here to

some account of its most famous student, Malthus, whose Essay on the Principle of Population is the starting point of all modern speculations on the subject'.

Malthus.

His reasoning consists of three parts which must be kept distinct. The first relates to the supply of labour. By a careful study of facts he proves that every people of whose history we have a trustworthy record, has been so prolific that the growth of its numbers would have been rapid and continuous if it had not been checked either

1 First edition 1798: he published a much enlarged and improved edition in 1803. The history of the Doctrine of Population, and of its connection with the practical needs of different nations at different times, is sketched in Principles, IV. III. 1, 2.

by a scarcity of the necessaries of life, or some other cause, that is, by disease, by war, by infanticide, or lastly by voluntary restraint.

His second position relates to the demand for labour. Like the first it is supported by facts, but by a different set of facts. He shows that up to the time at which he wrote no country (as distinguished from a city, such as Rome or Venice,) had been able to obtain an abundant supply of the necessaries of life after its territory had become very thickly peopled. The produce which Nature returns to the work of man is her effective demand for population: and he shows that up to this time a rapid increase in population, when already thick, had not led to a proportionate increase in this demand.

Thirdly, he draws the conclusion that what had been in the past, was likely to be in the future; and that the growth of population would be checked by poverty or some other cause of suffering, unless it were checked by voluntary restraint. He therefore urges people to use this restraint, and, while leading lives of moral purity, to abstain from very early marriages.

The changes which the course of events has introduced into the doctrine of population relate chiefly to the second and third steps of his reasoning. We have already noticed that the English economists of the earlier half of this century overrated the tendency of an increasing population to press upon the means of subsistence. It was indeed not their fault that they could not foresee the past developments of steam transport by land and by sea, which have enabled Englishmen of the present generation to obtain the products of the richest lands of the earth at comparatively small cost. But the fact that Malthus did not foresee these changes makes the second and third steps of his argument antiquated in form; though they are still in a great measure valid in substance. We may then proceed to state the doctrine of population in its modern form.