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To delineate the country according to its presidential division is very simple: Begin on the northeastern boundary of Virginia, at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay, and go down the west border of Virginia straight along the northern border of Tennessee, straight west, with only minor jogs over the tops of Arkansas and Oklahoma, then straight south to the border of Texas and west again along the same border to Mexico. South of this line is solid Davis. North of it, west of it, is solid Coolidge-except for Wisconsin carved out as La Follette enclave.
The Fresidential result in 1924 differs from that of 1920 in the following particulars:
1) The Democrats recovered Oklahoma this year from the Republicansadding 10 electoral votes to the Dem>cratic side and subtracting as many from the Republicans.
2) The Democrats regained Tennessee from the Republicans, but lost Kentucky in exchange-net loss of one electoral vote for the Democrats; one vote gain for the Republicans.
3) La Follette expropriated Wisconsin and her 13 electoral votes from the Republican domain.
From the standpoint of the politician, the business of government is but an interlude between elections. One battle is over and it may well rest in its grave. But the flotsam of this struggle is the foundation of the next. What is this foundation for the several parties?
Republican. To the victors belong the spoils. Continued patronage will strengthen the Republican organization during the next four years. This election, by putting a damper on radicalism, has helped to unify the Republican party by suppressing insurgency. Its normally strong financial position not only stood the test of campaign in which about $4,000,000 was collected from an estimated 80,000 people, but also it was reported that the Treasury had cash in the bank and no debts-a far different condition from the deficit of $1,400,000 to which the party fell heir after the 1920 election.
Democratic. Since the Civil War, this Party has ridden to success only four times-twice with Grover Cleveland, twice with Woodrow Wilson. The rest of the time, largely under the tutelage of William Jennings Bryan, its presidential record has been inglori
ous. Indeed, even when Mr. Bryan has not piloted the donkey himself, he has usually ridden behind the jockey. Numbers of Democrats say his riding has made the donkey lame.
Woodrow Wilson was led to remark as early as 1907: "Would that we could do something, at once dignified and effective, to knock Mr. Bryan once for all into a cocked hat!" And the late iearned and Democratic Walter
AN OLD MAN
"The Democratic Party remains the only hope"
Hines Page summed up his opinion of Mr. Bryan for Colonel House with the remark: "Crank once, crank always."
In the late campaign, the Democratic Party was defeated about as decisively as in 1920-more so in one respect: it ran third in 13 states. The Democratic New York World was moved to print the following editorially:
"If the Democratic Party is to wage a successful campaign in 1928 or any subsequent year, it must be done forever with Mr. Bryan, his family and his platforms."
Mr. Bryan himself commented: "The Democratic Party remains the only hope of the progressive element of the country.
"Mr. Coolidge carried eight states by a minority vote; these might have been taken from him had the Progressives been united.
"If the Democrats do half as well two years from now as they did two years ago, they will control the next Congress and lay the foundations for the campaign of 1928."
Mr. Bryan first began at the Democratic Convention this year by denouncing John W. Davis. Mr. Davis, wher nominated, chose the commoner's brother for his running mate-a thing which, according to politicians, was done to appease the great Bryan. Yet the two Bryans, as allies, were singu larly unable to carry the West. Willingly or unwillingly, they handed it over to the enemy.
So, the campaign over, Mr. Bryan again retired to his home at Miam still referring to the Democratic Party as "We." He announced his intention of writing his memoirs; one disgruntle Democrat remarked that they had be be called The Decline and Fall of the Democratic Party.
Another conjectured reason for the failure of the Democratic Party is "hetrayal" by William G. McAdoo. O ten western states that at the Democratic Convention were listed as McAdoo states-California, Idaho, Iow Kansas, Montana, Nevada, Oregor South Dakota, Washington, North Dakota-Mr. Davis carried not one; in fact he ran third in all of them except Kansas. "Is not McAdoo holding or on us," some Democrats cried at the time, "trying to prove that he is the only man who could carry the West for us?"
Looking ahead tour years, one sees few leaders among the Democrats wh now show signs of ability to lead the Party out of the wilderness. Mr. McAdoo, back on the Pacific, is already reported to be lining up his forces for a new attack in 1928-the first step c which, it is said, will be an attempt to remove Clem L. Shaver as Democrat National Chairman. In the East, Governor Al Smith has a claim because h rewon his state by 100,000 votes ar ran some 900.000 ahead of Davis. 1s the Middle West, Governor A. Victor Donahey of Ohio became a hero by similar feat. But can either of the la two gentlemen nationalize themselves
It remains to be seen. Meanwhit the pathway of the Democratic Party is not made easier by a deficit of som $200,000 remaining from this campaig or by the division within its own rank surviving the last Convention.
Progressive. The way the thir ticket ran may be estimated in two ways: 1) by comparison with hopes aid, expectations; 2) by comparison with previous third party efforts.
The LaFollette group had talked of carrying five to nine states. They had the support of the Socialist Party which normally polls from one-half to one million votes; the endorsement of the American Federation of Labor with some three million members; and a endorsement from the Steuben Society.
which promised the support of 6,000,000 German-Americans. It had the support of the Non-Partisan League of North Dakota, of the Farmer-Laborites and of the "discontented" farmers who had elected insurgent Republicans. Its paper strength was around twelve millions. Actually it was between four and five millions. Compared with Roosevelt's historic third party, Senator La Follette carried one state and thirteen electoral votes to Roosevelt's six states and 88 electoral votes.
Nevertheless, four or five million votes is a remarkable achievement as third parties go. But Senator LaFollette is no longer young; and the leadership of his movement, if it is to continue, must pass into younger hands. It is dubious whether Senator Wheeler can successfully carry it-he has exhibited more fighting than building ability. Senator Brookhart has received a bad fright.
Will a leader come from Labor? The American Federation of Labor meets on the 17th of this month, at its annual convention, at El Paso. The question of preserving the third party will doubtless come up.
But to expect a political savior to step full-grown from the forehead of the Federation is excessive. The development of political wings on the labor chrysalis will take time. Moreover, if Labor is to be the prime mover in the third party, one may expect it to lose its hold on the Farmers-a hold which even under Mr. LaFollette's direction is none too firm. And, in addition, Labor must develop a new champion to succeed the aging Mr. Gompers.
Of course, a movement is under way to perpetuate the new party. Mr. LaFollette with his bloody-but-unbowed attitude issued a post-election statement :
"The American people have chosen to retain in power the reactionary Republican Administration with its record of corruption and subservience to the dictates of organized monopoly.
"The Progressives will not be dismayed with this result. We have just begun to fight."
Rumor with her thousand eyes and myriad tongues began to anticipate the workings of Calvin Coolidge's mind, the deeds of his hand.
"Relieved of the embarrassment," murmured the plumage of monster Rumor, "of an impending election, Calvin Coolidge will recast his cabinet. Secretary Hughes will be urged to stay -but probably will insist on retiring. Secretaries Mellon, Hoover, Stone will stay. Secretary Wilbur may be re
moved outward and upward. Secretaries Weeks, Work, New, Davis will go."
Meanwhile, Secretary of Labor Davis has announced an itinerary on the business of gathering information on immigration that will take him to South America until about Christmas. Mr. Coolidge let Rumor run.
On Dec. 1, Congress assembles. It is not the new Congress recently elected; it is the old Congress of last winter. The old familiar faces, at least most of them, will reappear. A few of the old members, Senators Colt, Brandegee, Lodge, will be answering other rol calls. Some will come back to pay a brief parting call-Magnus Johnson, for example; Senators Ball, Dial, Stanley, Walsh of Massachusetts, McCormick, before a forced retirement to rustication on their farms and by their native fireside. A few, such as Senator Elkins, will be back to wave a gayér adieu. Others such as Senators Walsh, of Montana, Brookhart, of Iowa, will return with a sigh of relief, knowing that they may come again. But, in the main, it will be the same identical Congress -the Congress that nobody liked.
What may be expected of it under new circumstances? On the whole, its spirit and purpose will remain unchanged. Many members have merely been home to be patted on the back and sent to Washington by their constituents with the injunction: "Go back and do it over again, John!"
One thing may tend to chasten insurgent Republicans, however, and that is Senator Brookhart's close hunt in Iowa.
Yet it is not to be expected that the 68th Congress, reconvened, will differ from its previous self. That fact of itself will tend to put a check on the proposals which the President will make to it.
He is expected to recommend a new program of tax reduction, less farreaching than the last. Congress itself may come forward with some new measures of that kind. Representative Martin B. Madden, Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, has already suggested that a means be devised of rebating* all Treasury surplusses (over $25,000,000) to tax payers in order to keep the Government poor and reduce the tendency to extravagance by either the Executive or Legislative Branch.
The chief business to come up will
*This might take the form of a credit against future tax payments.
be the routine of passing the regular appropriation bills. The Howell-Barclay bill to abolish the Railroad Labor Board will be before the House when it convenes, having passed the Senate at the previous session. Its appearance will probably be the signal for the first great battle.
The Speaker in the Senate
On the 3rd of March, 1925, at the age of 73, Frederick Huntington Gillett will quit the chamber where for 32 years he will have served the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Leaving the hall where he has done the greater part of his life's work, he will walk up the long, long corridor, through the rotunda, and still on through the long, long corridor to the hall at the opposite end of the tremendous building on Capitol Hill.
His new place comes to him by virtue of adventure and as a reward. After 32 years in the service of a devoted constituency, which returned him regularly to office every two years during a career more meritorious than spectacular; after holding for six years the highest post which his colleagues could bestow -the Speakership he chose to essay the more difficult and dubious task of winning the electorate of Massachusetts to send him to the Senate for the culmination of his career.
There were, doubtless, other considerations that moved him to stand for the office. The quiet, conservative, impartial Speaker had earned the friendship of the silent President. In 1920, it was the Speaker who placed Calvin Coolidge in nomination for President of the U. S. Since Mr. Coolidge's actual accession to the Presidency, Mr. Gillett has supported him consistently and quietly. There was, more than once, evidence that the Speaker of the House was more in accord with the President's views than the senior Senator, Lodge from Massachusetts-the Republican floor leader in the Senate.
It was but natural that the President should desire to see as firm and faithful a supporter as Mr. Gillett as his spokesman in the Upper House. So Mr. Gillett announced his intention to contest the seat of Massachusetts Democratic Senator, David I. Walsh. The contest with Mr. Walsh was no little matter, for the latter had entrenched himself with Wet support, with support of foreign-born voters (by opposing the passage of the new Immigration Law), with support of War veterans (whose measures he had favored). Against this, Mr. Gillett had his own record as a competent presiding officer, with a keen mind, a quiet exterior; and he had the support of the Administration. The outcome was far closer than that of the
Presidential race. Mr. Coolidge had a plurality of 428,505 to Mr. Gillett's 20,000. But, nevertheless, Mr. Gillett's adventure was successful.
What situation might have developed with the two veteran legislators of Massachusetts sitting in the same Chamber -Mr. Lodge, the floor leader, at the head of the dwindling ranks of the Old Guard and Mr. Gillett, by his side, representing a conservative, but another and a newer order-no one can tell. Death intervened; and now the venerable representation of Massachusetts has but one allegiance.
The three vacant seats were occupied by Republicans, Senators Frank B. Brandegee, LeBaron B. Colt, Henry Cabot Lodge. It may be assumed that Mr. X. will be a Republican, and also Mr. Y. Hence the Republicans have gained five and lost one seat-a net gain of four.
Senate Alignment. Granting the vacant seats to the Republicans, the alignment in the next Senate will be 55 Republicans, 40 Democrats, 1 Farmer-Laborite-a nominal majority of 14. But Senators LaFollette, Frazier, Ladd, Norris and Brookhart must be deducted from the Republican majority and added to the Opposition, because of their consistent insurgency. This makes the alignment: 50 Regular Republicans, 46 Opposition-a majority of only four. The defection of three* other progressives in the Republican ranks would then readily upset the Republicans' narrow "working majority." That this defection may take place is far from unlikely in many cases, if one considers only the present personnel without ac
"In case of a tie vote, the Vice President ists the deciding ballot. With Mr. Dawes
the Chair and 48 regulars on the floor, the Republicans would always have a majority.
HENRY CABOT LODGE
"Over the Adams threshold."
counting for the strayings from the fold of such newcomers as Schall of Minnesota or McMaster of South Dakota.
House Faces. The most noteworthy change in the appearance of the House which can be visualized will be the disappearance from the Speaker's Chair of Frederick C. Gillett, gone to join new comrades in the Senate. Representative Longworth, Republican floor leader, is already nursing his ambition to be Speaker.
House Alignment. According to tabulations by William Tyler Page, Clerk of the House, the alignment of that body will be:
then a Princeton undergraduate. Originally, these two were strongly attracted intellectually; but their interest in each other ripened, in more mature years, into one of the notable politicopersonal antagonisms of their genera tion.
Among undergraduate faces that looked up to Professor Lodge's history lectern at Harvard was that of Theodore Roosevelt, U. S. President-to-be. To him Mr. Lodge was, early and late, "a valued political mentor," a close friend.
His early years at Washington were happy, a Golden Age. There was a threshold, at 1603 H Street, which was "sooner or later crossed by everybody who possessed real quality"-the threshold of Henry Adams, sardonic New Englander, connoisseur of life and all its arts, a man who said of himself: .. as far as he had a function, it was as stable-companion to statesmen, whether they liked it or not." Over the Adams threshold daily came John Hay, "the roving diplomat," Secretary of State to Presidents McKinley and Roosevelt, Adams' great friend. Here came Clarence King, a professional geologist of rare spirit, who "knew more than Adams did of art and poetry... knew America west of the 100th meridian better than anyone ... knew even women-even the American woman, even the New York woman, which is saying much." Here also came the young President Roosevelt, "of infinite dash and originality," glad of admittance. Here Richardson, the architect; Saint-Gaudens, the sculptor; LaFarge and Sargent, the painters. Here also Senator Lodge, the learned historian, man of letters in the old New England tradition.
In this circle, Mr. and Mrs. Lodge were intimates. John Hay had built his house next door; but most of the gatherings (breakfasts) were at 1603feasts of spirit and intellect in a world where politics constituted but one interest among a score. "Nowhere in the U. S.," says Hay's biographer, "was there then, or has there since been, such a salon." Being in Washington, it was a salon culturally and temperamentally more cosmopolitan than it could have been in contemporary Boston, less worldly, less bizarre than it might have been in contemporary Manhattan.
Publicly, Lodge worked with the Republican machine. He served his Party better than he served his own abilities. He went into politics as a profession and accepted it as he found it, played the game as it was being played. In turn, he gained the rewards of such service the smaller rewards of public
life, not the greater. Eventually, he clashed with President Wilson over the League of Nations. It was a clash between the two extremes-the learned man in politics, who plays the game according to the accepted formula, and the learned man who bows to no formula. President Wilson lost as Senator Lodge never could have lost; and President Wilson won as Senator Lodge never could have won.
Lodge, the winner, and Lodge, the loser, died when the Party which he had served was going on into new paths.
Governor Cox of Massachusetts will probably appoint someone to fill Mr. Lodge's seat for the next two years. An attempt to elect a new Senator at this time would be too dangerous for the Republicans, after the unusual showing made by Senator David I. Walsh, who has just been defeated by Mr. Gillett for Massachusetts' other seat in the Senate and who would doubtless jump at the chance of a new contest. The Republican senior member in the Senate is now Senator Francis E. Warren of Wyoming; but the floor leadership will probably go to another without any objection on Mr. Warren's part. Mr. Lodge's other important post, the Chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Committee, will, according to the seniority rule, go to Senator William E. Borah of Idaho.
Marked for Victory
Smith Wildman Brookhart stalked to the polls. As he went, he made a gesture of defiance and contempt at Coolidge and Dawes. Everyone recognized that, on his native hearth, Mr. Brookhart was supreme. He was marked for victory.
Then the election was held. Unaccountably, most unaccountably, Daniel F. Steck, Mr. Brookhart's Democratic opponent, led in the early returns. Still more unaccountably, he led in the later returns. Mr. Brookhart went to bed admitting his defeat and remarking that the electorate of Iowa had not understood the issues.
Next morning, things were more favorable for him. He took a sight. The official count was put off for a week. In the unofficial count, Brookhart had 447,523 votes to Steck's 446,407 -a lead of a bare 1,100 votes. The Presidential vote, however, was Coolidge 515,759, LaFollette 259,742, Davis 156,548.
hibit Child Labor. was openly
Since Mr. Brookhart friendly with Mr. LaFollette and had his support, it is a fair guess that the 260,000 people who voted for LaFollette also voted for Brookhart. In that case, it follows that some 329,000 people who
*The proposed Amendment does not proIt would give Congress the power to regulate or prohibit the labor of persons under 18 years of age. Its purpose is to make uniform, and inferentially to raise, the bars against Child Labor. The formal argument against the Amendment is "too much centralization." The real arguments are "conflicting interests, economic, social."
Dawes recommended it “to do for agriculture what the Experts' Commission did for Reparations."
To begin with, the President named eight men on the board and signified that they were to begin operations at once. Here is the personnel:
Former Governor Robert D. Carey of Wyoming.
O. E. Bradfute, former President of the American Farm Bureau Federation; Xenia, Ohio.
Charles S. Barrett, Chairman of the National Board of Farm Organizations; Union City, Ga.
Louis J. Taber, Master of the National Grange; Barnesville, Ohio.
Ralph P. Merritt, President of the Sun Maid Raisin Growers; Berkeley, Calif.
W. C. Coffey, Dean of the Dept. of Agriculture and Director of the Experiment Station of the University of Minnesota; St. Paul, Minn.
Fred H. Bixby, President of the American National Live Stock Association; Long Beach, Calif.
R. W. Thatcher, Director of the Experiment Stations, N. Y. State College of Agriculture; Geneva, N. Y.
In the fortunes of election, three women came safely out of the ballot box. All three were Democrats. Two of them were elected to be Governesses of States-the first time women have been chosen for such posts in this country.
In Wyoming. Mrs. Nellie T. Ross was elected to fill the unexpired term of her husband, the late Governor. Wyoming has had woman suffrage since 1869, since before the day when it became a State.
In Texas. Mrs. Miriam A. Ferguson was elected Governor. Her husband, ex-Governor, impeached and removed from office several years ago, did a large part of her campaigning and is now expected by many “to be the power behind the throne"--although she says otherwise.
In New Jersey. Mrs. Mary T. Norton was elected to the House of Representatives. She is the first Congresswoman from the East and the first Democratic woman elected to that office.
In the cases of Mrs. Ferguson and Mrs. Norton, the Democratic nomination practically carried with it the election, as the constituencies of these States are heavily Democratic, although the Republicans polled an unusually large vote in Texas.
In a great number of States, women were elected to legislatures; but, in the
higher offices, the preference seems to be for men unless suitable widows or wives of office holders are presented.
Wayne B. Wheeler, General Counsel of the Anti-Saloon League, applauded vigorously the result of the electionnot in terms of Republicans and Democrats, but in terms of wet and dry. His conclusions:
319 Dry Representatives
105 Wet Representatives 72 Dry Senators
24 Wet Senators
KU KLUX KLAN
What did the Ku Klux Klan do in the election? Nobody knows exactly, but they say it pushed:
Clarence C. Morley to the Governorship in Colorado;
Colonel Rice C. Means to a short term in the Senate from Colorado;
Ben S. Paulen to the Governorship of Kansas;
W. B. Pine to the Senatorship of Oklahoma;
Edward Jackson to the Governorship of Indiana.
On the other hand, an anti-Klan ticket won in Texas; and a proposal, supported by the Klan, to make all children attend public schools (hence, end parochial schools) was voted down in Michigan and Oregon.
The strong men of the states-they whose currents of popularity stronger than the tide of public sentiment in a national election-are few and far between. In this election, they were two, with 500 miles betweenGovernor Al Smith in New York and Governor Vic Donahey in Ohio.
Al Smith, having contributed to a two weeks' Democratic deadlock last June, is perhaps the larger figure in the public eye. In the election just past, although Coolidge carried New York by more than 800,000 votes, and the
Republicans captured practically all the state offices, Al, the idol of Manhattan sidewalks, saved himself with a majority of 100,000 votes. He ran 900,000 votes ahead of Davis. His fame increased.
Vic Donahey, however, though not so well advertised, performed a feat as great. As he did in 1922, so did he again sweep himself into office, al
A big home, a big vote
though both times the state went Republican, and in the last case Coolidge ran 600,000 votes ahead of Davis. But Vicwho was farmer and father of 10 children before he was politician, Vic of old Scotch Presbyterian stock, Vic who keeps convicts, mainly ex-murderers as servants in the Executive Mansion, Vic who roars and pounds his desk as if making one unending campaign. speech-induced the people of Ohio to give him some 150,000 more votes than were necessary for his reëlection.
In the Middle Ages, the Christian Church opened its arms to the oppressed, the persecuted and sometime; the prosecuted to offer them sanctuary, protection and preservation in the clerical precincts. Nowadays we have fish preserves and game preserves and gorilla sanctuaries. An occasional state, such as Delaware, has gone into business as a corporation sanctuary. It remained for Florida to come forward as a sanctuary for private wealth.
In the recent election, the citizens of that state ratified an Amendment to the State Constitution:
No tax upon inheritances or upon the income of residents or citizens of this
State shall be levied by the State Florida, or under its authority, and there shall be exempt from taxation : the head of a family residing in this State household goods and personal eifects to the value of $500.
This measure was taken for thr avowed purpose of attracting wealthy persons to the state-helping it to boom. What Nature has done climatically to improve the constitutions of the dyspeptic rich at Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Pensacola, St. Petersburg, the Law will do for the fortunes of the same peop!. by a most salubrious financial climate.
The tendency for states to follow the Federal model in income tax and to st up high inheritance taxes is increasing. Some states, such as Ohio and Virginia, have gone far enough to induce wealth people to move to less exacting cormonwealths. Florida, going to the opposite extreme, is putting out a "We'come" sign for these people*. Alread numbers of them are there. Doubtless more will go, seeking good treatment in a taxing world.
From more than one quarter, the com ment was made that there was no better Republican campaigner on the stump than Charles E. Hughes. He spoke widely from the Atlantic to the Middle West-in New York, Cincinnati, Indiarapolis, Chicago, Kansas City, as well as in a number of other cities. With the comment on his effectiveness went the remark that he was a better advocate of Mr. Coolidge than he had been of Mr. Hughes eight years earlier.
Bacon What Am
Carp-shaped Long Island has ten Congressmen and nine of them are Demcrats. But the tenth is a Republican b great odds. Robert L. Bacon, son of the famed financier, Secretary of State, Ambassador, was elected to Congress b the First New York District (Long Island) with a plurality of 48,800, the greatest plurality ever received by a Congressman in a contested district in that state.
In a number of states, electoral contests were close and it is possible that some of the candidates listed as elected in this issue of TIME may lose in the final official canvas which in some cases was delayed. Recounts and contests of the return may be carried out that may upset apparent results.
*Last week, the people of Oregon repeale their state income tax law by an initiative measure. The motive does not seem to have been the same as that of Florida. In Michigan, an Amendment providing for a state income tax failed of adoption.