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often exemplified in Flanders, where the effects of those wars, of which that fertile and beautiful province has so long been the occasional seat, have always been obliterated by a few years of peace. It was exemplified in London, after the fatal plague of 1666, the traces of which, in the short period of twenty years, were scarcely perceptible. The same observation has been made with respect to the effects of the famines in China and Hindostan, and of the plagues which so frequently sweep men by thousands from the face of the earth in Egypt and Turkey.

If this rapid increase was to go on unchecked, it is easy to perceive, that the world would, at no very distant period, be overstocked with inhabitants. Dr. Wallace, in his Dissertation on the Numbers of Mankind, has shewn that this must have been the case long before the Deluge, even on the very moderate supposition, that the numbers of mankind had doubled every thirty-three and one-third years. His computations on this subject deserve attention, as they lead to important consequences.

Suppose, then, the race to begin with a single pair, that all marry who attain to maturity, and that every marriage produces six children, three males and as many females; two of whom (one male and one female) die before marriage, (according to which hypothesis four will remain to marry and replenish the world,) that in thirty-three and one-third years from the time when the original pair began to propagate, they shall have produced their six children; and that within the second period of thirty-three and one-third years, each of the succeeding couples shall have produced six children, and this to take place continually. On these suppositions, at the beginning of the scheme, the original pair alone are in life; at the end of the first period of thirty-three and one-third years, there are six persons living, viz., the original pair and four others; at the end of sixty-six and two-third years, there will be twelve; at the end of one hundred years, there will be twenty-four living; and at the end of twelve hundred years, (the numbers of mankind continuing to double every thirty-three and one-third

years,) the number alive will be 206,158,430,208. According to the computations of the same very learned and ingenious writer, the whole habitable earth does not actually contain, at this moment, more than one thousand millions.

From the facts already stated with respect to our colonies in North America, it appears to be abundantly confirmed by actual experience, that even in circumstances which by no means afforded to the prolific powers of our species their greatest conceivable scope, population has gone on doubling itself every twenty-five years.

Assuming this, therefore, as a general rule, (which is obviously far short of the truth,) that population, when unchecked, goes on doubling itself every twenty-five years, a late anonymous author* argues in the following manner :

"Suppose the restraints to population, all over the earth, to be completely removed, and consider in what ratio the subsistence it affords can be conceived to increase. If it were to be increased every twenty-five years by a quantity equal to what the whole world at present produces; this would allow the power of production in the earth to be absolutely unlimited, and the rate of its increase much greater than we can imagine any possible exertions of mankind to make it.

"Taking the population of the world at any number, a thousand millions for instance, the human species would increase in the ratio of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, &c.; [a Geometrical ratio.] And subsistence as-1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, &c. ; [an Arithmetical ratio.] In two centuries and a quarter, the population would be to the means of subsistence as 512 to 10; in three centuries, as 4096 to 13; and in two thousand years, the difference would be almost incalculable, though the produce in that time would have increased to an immense extent."

* [Mr. Malthus is here referred to. At the time (c. 1800) when these Lectures were originally written, the Essay on the Principle of Population had been only anonymously published, in 1798. The second edition, with the author's name, and the reasoning considerably

modified, appeared in 1803; and in Mr. Stewart's subsequent courses, (as is seen from the fragment extant of a lecture in 1804, and from the notes taken in 1809, by Mr. Bridges and others,) Mr. Malthus is explicitly quoted.-See infra, pla ries.]

From this reasoning, which seems to be just in the main, it may be fairly inferred, that although the rapid multiplication of our species be in some states of society incomparably greater than in others, it does not appear to be a part of the order of Providence, that this rapidity should continue or be universal, an insurmountable obstacle being opposed to it by the other physical arrangements of our globe.

These considerations are sufficient, of themselves, to suggest a doubt, How far it is true that a rapidly increasing population is an unequivocal test of a wisely constituted government; and, Whether the mere increase of numbers ought to be a leading object of attention to a legislator. That both of these questions are to be answered in the affirmative, under proper limitations, is beyond dispute; but we may, perhaps, find reason afterwards to conclude, that they have been generally discussed by politicians in too vague and unqualified a form. Within these few years, indeed, the connexion between Population and National Prosperity has been examined with much greater accuracy than before, but not perhaps in such a manner as to unite completely the opinions of speculative politicians in their general conclusions. The very ingenious and intelligent author of L'Ami des Hommes, [Mirabeau, the Father,] appears to have wavered a little in his speculations on this point. In the first part of that work he maintains the superiority of National Wealth to Population, and insists that the latter ought to be regarded only as a secondary object by the statesman. But in the second part1 he asserts that Wealth is an inferior object to Population, and that numbers of people are alone the cause of riches.2

1 See the letters annexed to Socrate Rustique, (by M. Hirzel of Zurich,) translated by Arthur Young in his Rural Economy.

2 Of this contradiction Mirabeau himself takes notice, in a letter addressed to the French translator of a German Treatise entitled The Rural Socrates. "I have always," says he, "been scrupulous of making alterations in the Essays I pubVOL. VIII.

lish, if they go through a second edition; though certainly in one of them there is a very essential correction wanting; for, in second part of L'Ami des Hommes, [1755,] I have expressly contradicted what I asserted as a fundamental principle in the first-That Population was the consequence of Riches; I was sensible of my error in mistaking the cause for the effect, and have since advanced

E

Mr. Arthur Young, in his Political Arithmetic, (published in 1774,) lays it down as a most important and fundamental principle, that Population should be ever regarded as subordinate to Agriculture. "If a measure," says he, " is beneficial to the latter, give no attention to those who talk of injuring population. If you act primarily from an idea of encouraging populousness, you may injure husbandry; but if your first idea is the encouragement of the latter, you cannot reduce population below that standard which, being adapted to the circumstances of the country, can alone render it a source of national strength and of general happiness."1

Before, however, I enter on these discussions, it is necessary for me to consider, on what political causes the population of a country depends ;-an inquiry of great extent and importance, and which (in the manner I propose to treat it) will lead to an examination of some of the most interesting articles of Political Economy. The slight reference which I have just now made to the speculations of the Marquis de Mirabeau and of Mr. Young, is sufficient to shew how very intimately the different branches of this science are connected together.

that Riches are the consequence of Population. The method was simple and easy to have established this latter opinion by some slight additions, explaining the principles on which it is founded; but I was unwilling to lessen the value of the book to the first purchasers, and have invariably persisted in not changing the least sentence in the works once published; or adding

anything by way of Appendix, in future editions."-See Addenda to Socrate Rustique. Translated by A. Young, [in his Rural Economy, 1770.]

1 See Political Arithmetic, pp. 264267. In the last sentence of the above quotation, I have departed a little from Mr. Young's words; but the limitation I have added seems to be absolutely necessary for conveying his idea fully.

[CHAPTER II.]

[OF POPULATION CONSIDERED AS AN ARTICLE OF

POLITICAL ECONOMY.]

Or the political causes which affect the population of a country.

The most important of these may be referred to the three following heads:*

1. The Political Institutions which regulate the connexion between the Sexes;

2. The State of Manners relative to this Connexion; and, 3. The Means of Subsistence enjoyed by the People.

[SECT. I.-OF POPULATION AS AFFECTED BY THE POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS WHICH REGULATE THE SEXUAL CONNEXION.]

Under the first of these heads an extensive and interesting field of speculation presents itself; first, with respect to the comparative effects of marriage, and of a promiscuous concubinage; and, secondly, with respect to the comparative effects of monogamy and of polygamy.

[SUBSECT. I.—MARRIAGE COMPARED WITH CONCUBINAGE.]

In the very general observations concerning the Institution of Marriage to which I propose to confine myself in this lecture, I shall avoid those views of the subject which have an immediate reference to the more appropriate objects of Political Economy, in some of which respects (particularly in its connexion with Population) it will necessarily fall again under * [These will, accordingly, constitute so many Sections of this Chapter.]

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