erating an American merchant marine of 25,000,000 tons. Data upon which to figure consumption for such a fleet, with types of passenger and cargo ships running at various speeds and in various classes of service, are not yet very ample. But engineers have adopted a roughand-ready ratio, estimating one ton of oil yearly to a ton of dead-weight shipping, where the fuel burned is for steam, and half a ton yearly for motor ships.

"On this basis the American merchant marine alone would require 150,000,000 barrels yearly for steam, or 75,000,000 barrels for motor ships. The world's ocean tonnage was 50,000,000 tons before the war, and under the improvement and cheapening in transportation, made possible through petroleum, might increase to 75,000,000 tons within the next five or ten years, this estimate including our own merchant marine.

"Thus, for 75,000,000 tons of motor ships there would be required yearly somewhere between 200,000,000 and 250,000,000 barrels of crude oil. This is approximately half of the world's total present production, and more than 80 per cent of our own production." One would have to reckon with a considerably larger amount if Dieseled tonnage is partly substituted for steam tonnage.

Industries put on oil basis.-But ships are not the only new claimants to the world's oil. We now read that whole industries are to be put on an oil basis. France is prominent in this respect, as appears from the following: "The problem of substituting fuel oil for coal is one of the most important which confronts French industry. In many cases, the substitution has been the result of the insistence of the Minister of In

1 See Hurley. "When Coal Oil Johnny goes to Sea."

dustrial Reconstruction. To-day it is about to be carried out on a vast scale. The Commissioner General of Fuel Oils and Combustibles has established a program for the progressive transformation of furnaces and machinery from coal to oil-consuming. This program is already being carried out.

"Recent experiments made with railway locomotives prove that they can burn petrol with excellent results. The Paris-Lyons-Mediterranean Railway has made operative a program which calls for the monthly use of 1,500 cubic meters of mazout, starting with the first of the year. This quantity is to be increased progressively until it attains 5,500 tons per month by the end of the year. In 1921, consumption will be 15,000 cubic meters per month.

"The Minister of Public Works and the Commissioner General of Petrol have examined closely the proposal to construct a pipe line from Havre to Paris to furnish mazout to the latter city. American engineers, specialists in pipe-line construction and petrol transportation, have been called in consultation."

Similar reports come from Italy and other countries1 of meagre or no coal resources. So the future demand for oil is bound to grow rapidly. What about the supply?

The world's petroleum reserve. Our estimated unrecovered underground reserve of about six and one-half billion barrels, as now available, is far less impressive when we realize how fast we are using it up, and that while we have burned and wasted less than 1 per cent. of the coal resources of the United States in the last

1 Guaranty Trust Company of New York. "American Goods and Foreign Markets" (Weekly Letter) February 16, 1920.

one hundred years, we have apparently used up 40 per cent. of our available oil supply in only sixty years.

A glance at the map shows that outside of the United States the great oil supplies of the earth, so far as now known, are mainly centralized in the Near East, in South America and in Mexico.

In general the regions first developed and drawn upon most heavily are, of course, likely to be soonest exhausted. Therefore, it is practically certain that as the oil resources of the United States and Rumania diminish and the wells of Mexico also yield under the pressure of rapidly increasing exploitation, the world will have to look for its oil supplies to regions where inaccessibility and lack of demand have so far retarded development. It is possible that eventually considerable supplies may be discovered in the Near East, and that temporary relief will be granted to a limited extent by the Oil Leasing Bill which Congress has just passed. It also is possible, perhaps even probable, that more economical methods of production will relieve the present strain.

Possible substitutes for petroleum.-Optimists look to the oil shale of Colorado, Wyoming, etc., to save the situation in the future. But as Mr. M. L. Requa, VicèPresident of the Sinclair Oil Company, so clearly pointed out, to work the shale land on an adequate scale would require an army of workmen which would rival the hosts of a coal mine.

Then again the chemists promise that oil will be obtained from coal. But that, too, will require huge additional working forces, increased coal output, etc., not to mention the question of cost.

America's future as a maritime nation requires our participation in world oil exploitation.-The only safety for the future oil supply as far as this country is concerned, lies in a vigorous participation of American capital backed by a far-sighted and unprejudiced government in the exploitation of foreign fields. The experience of Mr. Doheny having to turn to London after his own country refused co-operation, must not be repeated. The seriousness of the situation was brought out in a letter written to Dr. Garfield by Mr. M. L. Requa. The letter follows:

Dr. H. A. GARFIELD,

FEBRUARY 28, 1919.

United States Fuel Administrator, Washington, D. C. DEAR SIR: Following a conference in which the petroleum problem was considered in detail, we have agreed upon the following statement of fact as representing an accurate picture of the petroleum problem as we see it:

1. The rapidly growing use of internal combustion engines, as well as of fuel oil on ships, both naval and merchant, inevitably means a more rapid increase in the consumption of petroleum in the future than in the past.

2. The enormous increase in world consumption in recent years has been coincident with the increasing difficulty of production in the United States, due to much greater depth necessary to drill in order to reach the oil-bearing horizon.

3. Careful calculations based upon data of the United States Geographical Survey indicate the probability that 40 per cent. of the available oil of the United States has already been exhausted, whereas less than 1 per cent of the coal has been mined.

4. The United States produces, consumes, and exports nearly 70 per cent. of the annual world production of petroleum, and has therefore industrially and commercially more at stake than any other nation.

5. The success of the United States Shipping Board program is dependent in largest part upon the use of fuel oil.

1 Congressional Record, July 29, 1919, p. 3519.