The professed followers of Malthus are somewhat dogmatic in their enunciation of the doctrine, and altogether impatient of any doubt or question as to its correctness. This positiveness arises from a perception of the unquestionable correctness of the data on which the theory is founded, and of the chief features of the theory itself; while the general reluctance to accept it proceeds from involuntary dread of the shocking conclusions that it has been made to support, and from disgust at the consequences of its practical application. The doctrine of Malthus is sometimes understood, in its extended sense, to comprise the whole body of these inferences from it, together with its immediate application as advice to men for the government of their conduct and the regulation of society; and it is when thus understood, that the common sense and natural feelings of mankind shrink from it with that strong aversion which the followers of the theory are apt to stigmatize as "sentimental horror." Taken in the more restricted meaning, which is always used when the theory is controverted or denied, Malthusianism contains only one or two truisms about the law of increase that is common to the human race with the whole animal creation, which have no practical importance whatever, except for the purpose to which they were first applied by Malthus himself,- namely, to confute an absurd speculation by Godwin as to the perfectibility of the social state. Upon this ambiguity of meaning depends the whole controversy as to the law of population, and its consequences upon the well-being of society.

The proposition upon which the whole theory rests is this, that the power of increase of any race of animals, the human species included, is indefinite, or incapable of exhaustion; and if it were exercised to the utmost, without any check from external circumstances or from the animal's power of self-control, the earth would not be large enough, I do not say merely, to afford subsistence, but even to give standing-room, to the beings who would claim a place upon it. The capacity of increase necessarily acts in a geometrical progression; for each pair being capable of procreation, if the race, under certain circumstances, increases within thirty years from ten thousand to twenty thousand, a mere continuance of the same cause and the same circumstances would enlarge the number, within the

next thirty years, to forty thousand; and the third period would carry it to eighty thousand. For example, a given rate of increase, in the ten years from 1790 to 1800, added but 1,200,000 to the white population of this country; but from 1830 to 1840, the same rate of increase added 3,600,000. The population was more than doubled from 1790 to 1820; it was again more than doubled from 1820 to 1850. But the former doubling added less than five millions to our numbers, while the latter doubling added over ten millions; and the next doubling, in 1880, will add twenty millions. This law of possible increase in a geometrical progression belongs to every species, both of the animal and vegetable kingdom, of which we have any knowledge; it is an immediate and logical inference from the self-evident fact, that every pair, whether of the earliest or the latest generation, whether forming part of a very small or a very numerous community, is equally capable of continuing and multiplying its kind. Its prolific power is not at all affected by the greater or smaller number of its fellowcreatures which may be already in being. If population should go on in this manner without check, it is evident that, within a few centuries, the earth might literally be overstocked with human beings; if they should stand shoulder to shoulder, as thickly as the stalks of wheat in a cultivated field at harvesttime, every plain, valley, and hill-top, the surface even of every sea and ocean, might be covered with them; and there would still be a call for room, for the next thirty years would inevitably double even this immense assemblage, which we have supposed to be already like the sands of the sea for multitude.

Observe that this law of increase by geometrical progression holds good, whether the annual rate of increase be fast or slow. In the United States, for instance, the annual rate, exclusive of the effects of immigration, is 2.39 per cent, and, as a consequence, the population is doubled in little over 32 years. In France, the annual rate is but 0.6 (six tenths of one per cent), and the population, therefore, is not doubled in less than 115 years. Still, it will be doubled in that time, and therefore, in 230 years, it will be quadrupled, thus following the law of increase by geometrical progression, if it increase at all. The theory of Malthus may be said to owe its plausibility, in great part, to the fact with which all arithmeticians are very famil

iar, that a number increasing by geometrical progression within a given period rises to a very formidable amount. Thus, McCulloch calculates that the population of the United States, if the present annual rate of increase should continue, in one century from this time will amount to 240 millions; and in two centuries, that is, in A. D. 2050, it will reach the very respectable sum of 3,840 millions, or nearly five times the present population of the globe. The possibility of such a result is certainly appalling, and at first sight, it may appear to justify the alarm expressed by the Malthusians.

Even without taking into view the ultimate check to the increase of the numbers of mankind that will be found in the limited extent of the earth's surface, Mr. Malthus undertakes to show, that the means of subsistence, under the most favorable circumstances, cannot increase so rapidly as the number of mouths calling for food. The race of population against food, he maintains, is like that of Achilles against a tortoise; it is too unequal, whatever may be the advantage at first possessed by the weaker party. Whatever may be the present superfluity of sustenance, or of the means of increasing sustenance, population multiplies so fast, that it must soon overtake and surpass the supply of nourishment. Looking at first only to Great Britain, he says:—“If it be allowed, that, by the best possible policy and great encouragements to agriculture, the average produce of the island could be doubled in the first twenty-five years, it will be allowing probably a greater increase than could with reason be expected. In the next twenty-five years, it is impossible to suppose that the produce could be quadrupled. It would be contrary to all our knowledge of the properties of land. The improvement of the barren parts would be a work of time and labor; and it must be evident to those who have the slightest acquaintance with agricultural subjects, that, in proportion as cultivation extended, the additions that could yearly be made to the former average produce must be gradually and regularly diminishing. That we may be the better able to compare the increase of population and food, let us make a supposition, which, without pretending to accuracy, is clearly more favorable to the power of production in the earth than any experience we have had of its qualities will warrant.

"Let us suppose that the yearly additions which might be made to the former average produce, instead of decreasing, which they certainly would do, were to remain the same; and that the produce of this island might be increased, every twenty-five years, by a quantity equal to what it at present produces. The most enthusiastic speculator cannot suppose a greater increase than this. In a few centuries, it would make every acre of land in the island like a garden. If this supposition be applied to the whole earth, and if it be allowed that the subsistence for man which the earth affords might be increased every twenty-five years by a quantity equal to what it at present produces, this will be supposing a rate of increase much greater than we can imagine that any possible exertions of mankind could make it. It may fairly be pronounced, therefore, that, considering the present average state of the earth, the means of subsistence, under circumstances the most favorable to human industry, could not possibly be made to inorease faster than in an arithmetical ratio.

"The necessary effects of these two different rates of increase, when brought together, will be very striking. Let us call the population of this island 11 millions, and suppose the present produce equal to the easy support of such a number. In the first 25 years, the population would be 22 millions, and, the food being also doubled, the means of subsistence would be equal to this increase. In the next 25 years, the population would be 44 millions, and the means of subsistence only equal to the support of 33 millions. In the next period, the population would be 88 millions, and the means of subsistence just equal to the support of half that number. And at the conclusion of the first century, the population would be 176 millions, and the means of subsistence only equal to the support of 55 millions, leaving a population of 121 millions totally unprovided for.

"Taking the whole earth instead of this island, emigration would of course be excluded; and supposing the present population equal to one thousand millions, the human species would increase as the numbers 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, and subsistence as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. In two centuries, the population would be to the means of subsistence as 256 to 9; in three centuries, as 4,096 to 13; and in two thousand years, the difference would be almost incalculable."

We cannot find much comfort in the fact, that the human race have already inhabited this globe for more than six thousand years, a period surely long enough, with the aid of a geometrical progression, even if the annual rate of increase had been very small, but regular, to have brought into being vastly more than the poor 800 millions who now stock the earth. In former times and in barbarous countries, war, pestilence, famine, tyranny, and all the other ills which uncivilized man is heir to, not only kept down the rate of increase, but often caused the population to retrograde. Practically, down to the present day, the only evil which has been felt has been, not an excess, but a deficiency, of population. Even Spain, once the head of European civilization, had ten millions of inhabitants in the middle of the sixteenth century, and one hundred and twenty years afterwards, it had only six millions. The classical scholar need not be reminded of the still more striking depopulation of Italy under the Roman emperors, and, at a still earlier day, of the provinces which now constitute Turkey in Europe. Asia Minor and the region on the banks of the Tigris and Euphrates were teeming with inhabitants twentyfive centuries ago, while they are now very sparsely populated, and probably do not increase at all. But the causes which formerly kept down the natural increase of the people have now, in all civilized communities, in a great measure ceased to act. War is, at present, an infrequent and much less destructive calamity. Epidemic diseases no longer lay waste whole provinces; remedies for them, or modes of preventing them, have been discovered. The practice of vaccination alone, by robbing that frightful disease, the small-pox, of its terrors, has added some years to the average duration of human life. The greater prevalence of cleanliness, the improvement of the diet, dress, lodgings, and other accommodations of the mass of the people, and the drainage of bogs and marshes, by which agues and marsh fevers have been prevented, with the many improvements in medical and surgical science, have materially lessened the rate of mortality, and thus caused the population to increase more rapidly.

A comparison, made by M. de Chateauneuf, of the movement of the population in most countries of Europe from 1825 to 1830 with what it was from 1775 to 1780, an interval of