TABLE XII.

SHEWING COMPARATIVELY THE MORTALITY IN CARLISLE, FROM 1774 TO 1787, OF LONDON IN 1814 AND 1822, AND OF THE PRINCIPAL CITIES IN NORTH AMERICA IN 1814, 1821, AND SEVEN YEARS PREVIOUS TO 1827.

(8) The foregoing tables fully prove, according to the authorities previously quoted, and, indeed, conformably to the reason of the case, that a vast influx of emigrants is added to the American population between the ages of 20 and 40. There can be little doubt but that, if we could institute a fair comparison, it would be found that the deaths under 10 years of age would be about equal, and in the next ten years not very different; whereas, those between 20 and 30, the period of life at which emigration generally

commences, and is very great in its amount, the mortality is actually twice as great; and in the next ten years, during which it is certain that emigration continues to be very prevalent, the deaths are still nearly double those in Europe. On the contrary, in the advanced stages of life, between 60 and 70, for instance, the deaths in America, similarly compared, are not half so numerous, and their proportion still continues to diminish to the end of the term of human life.

(9) There is only one other cause, as before observed, to which these striking differences can be attributed, and that is the supposition of an adequate variation in the law of mortality. But to produce this effect, it must be great to a degree afflicting to contemplate. It would imply that, in America, after the period of infancy, which still continues to make so great a demand on existence, the human race has to enter immediately upon another ordeal full as fatal to the remainder, namely, the prime of life; or, in other words, the very season of prolificness; in passing through which it would appear half that survive to it, perish. The very idea is perfectly irreconcileable with any increase whatever, much less the geometrical one, so often insisted upon. Humanity itself, therefore, prompts us to adopt the other conclusion, and to attribute these results to a cause which has been already abundantly proved to be in existence, and in full operation in America, namely, Emigration.

(10) I do not mean, however, to contend that there are not other reasons for the peculiarities these American bills present to us when contrasted with those of England; among which a smaller degree of general longevity, in the former than in the latter country, must certainly be included. To this I have already

alluded, and shall but slightly touch upon it at present it is nevertheless too important to other parts of the argument to be entirely forgotten. I shall therefore give the expectation of life at some of its periods in various parts of Europe and in America, premising that the latter has been calculated since the great improvement in the term of existence has taken place, the former previously to it; a consideration of the highest importance to the comparison.

TABLE XIII.

SHEWING THE EXPECTATION OF LIFE IN SUNDRY PARTS OF EUROPE, AND IN AMERICA, AT THE AGES SPECIFIED.

558

CHAPTER XIII.

OF EMIGRATION TO NORTH AMERICA: ITS EFFECT ON THE GENERAL INCREASE OF THE POPULATION.

(1) A MOST important view of the subject of emigration to America still remains to be taken, that is, its effect, in proportion to its extent, upon the increase of population there; one, which I conceive has been more completely misunderstood, or otherwise misrepresented, than any thing connected with the whole inquiry. This consideration is, therefore, reserved for the concluding part of the present argument. Some of the preceding calculations may possibly be inaccurate, some of the statements overcharged; or, if both should be substantially true, it is not the less unlikely that they should be disputed and contradicted. But the fact which remains to be shewn, is of a nature not very capable of being disproved or evaded; it is selfevident as soon as announced; and, applied to the very lowest of the admissions regarding the extent of emigration, it is fatal to the theory of those, who, pronouncing it to be immaterial, deduce from American increase, the geometric theory of human duplication. The fact to which I advert is this: the great body of emigrants consists of a class, whose increase must, of necessity, be far greater, and more rapid, than that of an equal number of individuals taken fairly and promiscuously from the entire population of a country.

(2) But before entering upon this subject, I will

advert for a moment to the manner in which the theorists with whom I am contending, manage to evade the consequences of emigration. Fixing upon a certain number of inhabitants, at an early period of colonization, they commence and continue their doublings thence, wholly losing sight of all those large accessions to the original number which have been made, and even at an early period, by these subsequent emigrations. It must, however, be evident, even according to their own views, that all these stood, in reference to the principle of population, in the position of original settlers, excepting just so far as the years of the latter, being in advance, would give them the advantage; in all other respects, indeed, the later ones were in circumstances far more favourable to human increase. A proportionate part of the amount to which the whole population has multiplied is, therefore, evidently attributable to these successive additions. This fact, it is presumed, will not be controverted, though I am not aware that it has been ever brought forward.

(3) Emigration, however, begins to be acknowledged, when it is supposed that it can be represented as no longer material to the increase of the population. But its consequences are then as dexterously evaded, as though its existence had continued to be overlooked. The very same reasoners who calculate with such confidence and precision, that in America, the population, generally considered, multiplies in a geometric ratio; argue, regarding emigrants, as though these added to their numbers in arithmetical progression only: or, what amounts to nearly the same thing, they present to us the increase of these accessions in such short terms, as to make it out to be, as